Anthropic S1: Their biggest customers spend 0.1% of revenue on AI | The Pirate Street Journal
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Most people assume Anthropic is bleeding cash. After reading the S-1, the hosts of the Pirate Street Journal came away with a different picture. The company pulled in about $23 billion over the first nine months of the year, compared with roughly $2.5 billion in the same stretch last year. Investors have put in around $140 billion, and about $132 billion is still sitting in the bank. The headline loss of $104 billion looks scary until you see that roughly $94 billion of it is a paper charge on convertible notes that gained value as the company did. Here is what the hosts found when they dug in.
This episode of The Pirate Street Journal breaks down three major business topics through that lens. Christopher, Eddie, and Bri take a hard look at the week’s most important business news and share what the Wall Street Journal and the rest of the mainstream press consistently miss. The result is a faster, sharper, and more honest read on how business actually works.
Welcome to Lochhead on Marketing. The number one charting marketing podcast for marketers, category designers, and entrepreneurs with a different mind.
The Fastest Revenue Ramp Ever Recorded
Compare fifth-year revenue. Nvidia did $29.1 million. Google did $439.5 million. Anthropic did $4.59 billion. Nothing in tech history looks like that. Strip out the accounting noise and the business is cash flow positive, with about $6.6 billion in operating cash flow over nine months. The company spent only $9 or $10 billion in net cash to stand up a $65 billion revenue business.
Market share tells a similar story. Menlo Ventures reported Anthropic’s share climbing from roughly 40% last year to 55% this year. Even the biggest customers spend only about 0.1% of their revenue on tokens, against technology budgets closer to 4 or 5%, so the room to grow looks enormous.
Anthropic: Power, Politics, and the Problem of Messaging
Anthropic has a weak spot: it does not control its own infrastructure. Its S-1 names access to data centers, compute, and power as its biggest fear. Elon Musk has said power is now the limit, Microsoft has struck a long deal to revive Three Mile Island, and data center moratoriums are gaining ground in politics. If the U.S. turns hostile to data centers, Musk, with his plans for orbital compute, could end up holding the strongest hand.
The hosts also think the company markets itself badly. Its letter leads with abstract benefits and heavy risk language, including a warning that the technology could harm humanity. Simple promises would land better: a doctor or nurse available around the clock, a personal CFO that saves you money, and a software engineer on call. Bree’s own story fits that pitch. AI helped her sort out her acne, then her thyroid problem, and then a skin condition, and her family benefited too.
A Knife’s Edge Business With Near Infinite Demand
The CFO’s job looks brutal. Slow the spending and revenue cools, which drags down the valuation. Push the spending and you need power that may not exist yet, plus compute bought on the spot market, which can flip the P&L upside down fast. The hosts expect wild swings in year one for anyone buying the stock, and say only an iron stomach will do.
Still, the long view is bullish. The category is not really artificial intelligence, it is intelligence, and the collective intelligence of everyone beats the intelligence of a few. Demand for that may have no ceiling. The hosts expect Anthropic to produce a legendary outcome, though they expect the volatility to be just as legendary.
To hear more about the topics in this week’s The Pirate Street Journal, download and listen to this episode. You can also read more Pirate Street Journal entries in the Category Pirates newsletter.
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